Trying to make sense of economic shifts and asset prices
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Yes, but: US bifurcation is everywhere
The current US economy shows contrasting signs: while the SPX reaches new highs daily, market breadth and corporate health are declining, particularly for smaller businesses. Rising bankruptcies and high credit costs suggest significant underlying weaknesses despite optimistic expectations and perceived exceptionalism.
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Trump trade is taking a breather, while economy is slowing
Trump trades diverge from 2016, with less significant market moves. Employment is declining, earnings revisions are negative, global services lag behind manufacturing, indicating a potential softening of overall economic growth ahead.
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EU hard landing risks are rising, ECB should be cutting more aggressively
A number of really weak economic surveys are coming out from EU, while unemployment in Germany is spiking. Output continues to slide, while expectations are dropping quickly too
MacroKid: my macro blog 